Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 3.544636 4.262530 5.064969 6.024907 7.138345 8.385369 9.883747
2025-03-16 2.506573 3.414523 4.538333 6.017146 7.895676 10.184822 13.165616
2025-03-23 1.862202 2.827858 4.132135 5.990266 8.531283 11.841528 16.428631
2025-03-30 1.365013 2.292534 3.649203 5.723705 8.748853 12.920884 19.011734
2025-04-06 1.081378 1.986981 3.407712 5.716651 9.271328 14.410971 22.241255
2025-04-13 0.864618 1.729752 3.178708 5.668686 9.693938 15.763235 25.361638
2025-04-20 0.761318 1.638430 3.191133 5.986455 10.690213 18.027810 29.984744
2025-04-27 0.660089 1.525813 3.142762 6.185773 11.503249 20.064829 34.406921
2025-05-04 0.589643 1.455893 3.154940 6.482692 12.496182 22.451832 39.536169
2025-05-11 0.494272 1.311263 3.000332 6.451821 12.912521 23.922728 43.292417
2025-05-18 0.396776 1.136875 2.754734 6.210376 12.918215 24.692623 45.935166
2025-05-25 0.313838 0.973767 2.500856 5.911142 12.774225 25.176525 48.108507
2025-06-01 0.265396 0.885764 2.397101 5.908905 13.204695 26.727880 52.270572
2025-06-08 0.226295 0.811809 2.311817 5.933442 13.689392 28.415160 56.791925
2025-06-15 0.191381 0.739114 2.215359 5.918273 14.089294 29.971914 61.179177
2025-06-22 0.151381 0.637044 2.024489 5.658376 13.950512 30.494590 63.706669
2025-06-29 0.128661 0.583107 1.947379 5.652766 14.347127 32.070984 68.282727
2025-07-06 0.108164 0.529284 1.859133 5.605748 14.645012 33.469086 72.600961
2025-07-13 0.101531 0.525085 1.911744 5.920655 15.782975 36.627785 80.483134
2025-07-20 0.092139 0.506717 1.918894 6.118146 16.668731 39.326852 87.613830
2025-07-27 0.086036 0.499969 1.960461 6.412288 17.805319 42.614307 96.076615
2025-08-03 0.073389 0.459374 1.886638 6.381715 18.166232 44.295411 101.421247
2025-08-10 0.058828 0.402588 1.746191 6.142551 17.994721 44.825616 104.462630